Decision Desk HQ Models IA-03 Election, Projects Zach Nunn Winner

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Decision Desk HQ Models IA-03 Election, Projects Zach Nunn Winner
Simulated 14 million times, Zach Nunn is projected winner with 54%

Des Moines, IA – Zach Nunn’s campaign for Congress issued the following statement after new race ratings were released for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District.

Decision Desk HQ, the leading provider of U.S. election results and related data, announced recently their 2022 Decision Desk HQ Forecast Model. The model “takes into account over 100 variables to predict the probability of the winner for each Senate and House seat.” Variables like state/district history, polling, incumbency and fundraising are ran through 14 million election simulations to create a win probability for both parties. In 2020, Decision Desk’s congressional model correctly predicted the outcome of 415 of 435 House seats (95%) and was featured in the Harvard Data Science Review.

Currently, their model predicts that Zach Nunn will receive 54% of the vote in November compared to Cindy Axne’s 46%. Their model also predicts that Republicans have a 90.1% chance of controlling the U.S. House in 2022. This new IA-03 rating comes on the heels of polling released last week, showing Zach Nunn and incumbent Cindy Axne in a neck-to-neck race. In addition, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report have ranked IA-03 as ‘Lean R’ following Nunn’s primary win, along with FiveThirtyEight favoring Nunn to win as well.

 “The newly released election simulation and data confirms what we’ve known all along – Iowans are tired of Democrat’s out-of-touch personalities and far-left agendas,” said Josh Treat, campaign manager.  “We’ve been on the ground in every single community of IA-03, from Lenox to Urbandale to Ottumwa, and we’ve heard what actually matters to Iowans – inflation, inflation, inflation. While Democrats argue about liberal wishlists, Americans continue to struggle with real issues like taxes, shrinking wages and high cost of gas, groceries and housing. Election analysts are predicting a Red Wave for a reason – conservatives like Zach Nunn understand the importance of jobs, family and livelihood and will work on Day 1 to lower taxes, fix inflation, bring jobs back and become energy independent again.”


More about Zach Nunn:

Zach Nunn is a veteran, state senator, father, husband and Iowan. As a combat veteran, Zach served our country as an airborne intelligence officer in the United States Air Force. After 9/11, he deployed three times to the Middle East and flew over 700 combat hours.

Following his military service, Zach was elected to the Iowa House of Representatives and later the Iowa Senate. Nunn has ousted Democratic incumbents twice, including in 2018, when his campaign flipped a decades-long Democrat-held seat by 12%, in Polk County (IA-03). After a decisive win in a competitive primary, Cook Political Report and Sabato Ball changed this congressional seat from “Toss-Up” to “Lean R”. Zach was also named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) Young Guns program, which determines the top U.S. House recruits nationally.

Zach and his family are sixth generation Iowans – a family of teachers, nurses, and farmers built on a century of hard work on the land. Zach has chosen to continue living in Iowa and is a father to four school-aged children and a husband to Kelly.